Monday, 18 December 2017

Price Waterhouse Report - Norway 500% Growth to 2050

This post will highlight some text in the report: For example:

Expect even lower employment in fish farms in the future:

"Accelerating technological development will enable  the aquaculture industry to use Artificial Intelligence and Big Data models as grounds for decision-making and optimization of the production. Further, increased automation, combined with machine learning and AI, will reduce the need for local on-site manpower."

Also, RAS:

"Production can be performed anywhere, and is not in need of access to public space. Fish can be produced near end markets, which eliminates air freight, but it my also remove the competitive advantage of production in Norwegian fjords."

Lice problems increase costs while RAS has experienced a cost decrease in terms of lower CAPEX.

PW say that lice have caused the stagnation in the Norwegian industry, since 2012, and is the major challenge in the long run, along with availability of feed components. See page 44.

The new development licences (these are for farm designs that eliminate contacts with the environment) may lead to higher production, but also higher costs.

Some overview text (please excuse the formatting issues):
One thing     One thing is for sure – the road towards five million tonnes will not be a walk in the park!
       The industry will frequently have to overcome several bumps in the road, starting today with   the   biological and salmon lice challenges. Shortage of feed ingredients, available areas for expansion, technology-driven increase in investment costs, or increased competition from new, near-market producers may occur in later stages of growth. 

       To achieve a production volume of 5 million tonnes, the industry must focus on technology and expertise. At the same time, they must maintain quality and keep market prices at a sustainable levels without experiencing a severe cost increase. Simultaneously, trade authorities must focus on establishing and maintaininglong-term relations with authorities in both new and existing markets. They must also co-operate with the industry to prevent and reduce trade restrictions that may create entry barriers for Norwegian seafood. Access to markets is an important prerequisite as there may be considerable contributions to the supply side. The production capacity in Chile is estimated to grow steadily towards 618,000 tonnes in 2018.

     Also, the super-profit amongst producers today opens up for new farming technologies, elaborated on later in this report. Maintaining the Norwegian industry’s market access and position will be increasingly important, demanding attention from both producers and trade authorities.

Do go and read this report. It is worthwhile.

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