Tuesday 12 January 2021
'Another sleepless night': Thousands of BC salmon farming jobs hang in the balance?
I don't think so, so I wrote a letter to Minister Jordan on how to solve the move to land in BC fish farms
Hi Minister Jordan et al
The quote in the subject line above is false. There are not thousands of jobs in the Discovery Islands. Fish farms vastly over estimate their employment figures so politicians think they are big, when they are not. My estimate is 212 jobs, and that is peanuts.
The industry says 1500 jobs in the Discovery Islands, while the BC govt’s own figure is only 1800 for the entire province. Mowi’s Discovery is 10,000 metric tonnes of salmon, while the entire province is only 85,000MT. Based on employment per MT, calculating from the BC figure makes the Discovery jobs only 212, or 11.8% of the industry estimate.
Here is how to do the jobs calculation: 10,000MT/85,000MT = 11.8%, then multiply 1800jobs X .118 = 212 jobs. That’s all there are. DFO has believed the false numbers for decades, but the BC Stats Report are the best stats. Your staff are using a figure of 7000 for the entire province, when it is false. And the figure will never rise to 10,000 as industry claims because the on-land industry in the USA, BC’s main market, is in the process of climbing to 6 times the size of the BC industry and US consumers want sustainable product. This will wipe out the BC industry, unless it comes to land and offers a price point.
Here is what else you should do:
1. Train the 212 employees to work in on-land fish farms. Then, when you move to the entire industry, you have a system already in place, so that jobs are not lost, and people need not worry.
2. As is done in Norway where the BC companies are from, you should reduce the on-land license to zero, while raising the in-ocean licence as a way to influence the industry to land. Their in-ocean Norway licenses are auctioned for $32- to $40-million. In BC, raise the in-ocean license to $1 million and tell the industry you are giving them a break, with following licenses to be $5m and then up to the Norway levels. They will complain and then buy the licences because fish farms are a license to print money. (I have the price margins, if you would like to see them).
3. Give each in-ocean farm in BC $1 million toward buying land for a farm.
4. Alternatively, grant some public land for fish farms to set up on land, or lease it to them.
Other Notes:
a. The BC government’s own stats, in the BC Stats Report, show there are not thousands of jobs. The entire industry jobs number is 1800 for 85 licenses. See: http://fishfarmnews.blogspot.com/2019/03/mar-21-2019-bc-stats-report-2016.html.
b. Here on Intrafish is where the subject line comes from: https://www.intrafish.com/aquaculture/another-sleepless-night-thousands-of-bc-salmon-farming-jobs-hang-in-the-balance/2-1-941716?utm_term=intrafish_com.
c. I worked in Treasury Board Staff for the Ministry of Finance, BC in the past. This is how I understand how to do analysis and calculations.
DC (Dennis) Reid
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The 1500 jobs was determine by an independent economist and it's the number of jobs associated with the Discovery Islands. Therefore it is not false.
ReplyDeleteLand-based is not a viable option in BC it's too expensive and therefore the product will not be able to compete in the market. Land-based is only viable economically in the states as they are the major market. The other issue with land-based it is much more harmful to the environment and will increase carbon emissions and has fish welfare concerns as the densities in tanks is much higher than in the ocean pens.
Your calculations don't account for real life problems that need to be factored in.
1. My third degree is a Masters of Public Administration, comprised of economics, law, finance and accounting. And I worked in the Ministry of Finance for years. So, I stand by my number. 212 jobs. Maybe you should take an economics course. Hmm?
ReplyDeleteThe industry uses private businesses to calculate their numbers, but only hires those who give them the inflated or deflated numbers they’re looking for. For example, Gardner Pinfold. Look, for instance at this post that goes through job numbers in Canada: http://fishfarmnews.blogspot.com/2019/07/fish-farm-problems-on-global-scale-inka.html. The reality is that BC fish farm jobs have declined by 5.3% in the past 20 years. East coast have declined by 32%. The Inka Milewski article is stellar covering the issues.
2. The rest of your comment shows a lack of understanding about the actual reality of fish farming now. It is standard industry patter of the last 40 years that on-land is too expensive, uses too much costly electricity, and naively that in-ocean is less harmful to the environment. The reality is that the world is heading toward 1.8 million metric tonnes of on-land, even though in-ocean fish farms continue their communication’s spin, as the BC industry rushes toward being wiped out.
It is not too expensive. That is industry patter. Before the US got in the game, the industry said it could not be done in the US, or anywhere else. Well, the entire in-ocean is only 2.8million MT, so on-land can and is being done around the world. And the sewage cost in BC is a staggering $10.4B. The cost is $0 for on-land because sewage is sold or made into fertilizer, of to grow aquaponic vegetables and so on.
3. My list of on-land fish farms is now 345 around the world: https://fishfarmnews.blogspot.com/2016/05/152-different-on-land-fish-farm-systems.html.
4. And my list of global news of on-land is now up to the landslide figure of 745 news pieces, analysis, and so on: https://fishfarmnews.blogspot.com/2020/12/good-news-post-dec-14-2020.html.
Them’s are the factoids, er facts.